Probably the most well-liked futures markets for NFL bettors is whether or not a group will make or miss the playoffs. Whereas loads of groups made shock runs in 2021, just like the Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers, this season may look completely different with many adjustments in numerous divisions.
Can the Kansas City Chiefs nonetheless maintain the crown in a reloaded AFC West? How will the acquisition of Tyreek Hill affect the Miami Dolphins‘ playoff probabilities? Is there a group flying beneath the radar that bettors needs to be proper now?
Our betting specialists reply among the most urgent questions relating to NFL playoff make/miss futures.
Futures week schedule
Monday: Win totals
Tuesday: Playoff make/miss
Wednesday: League leaders
Friday: Tremendous Bowl, convention and division odds
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Is there a playoff make/miss prop that you must bounce on proper now?
Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN betting analyst: Miami Dolphins to overlook the playoffs (-160). Given the abundance of competitors for the AFC’s seven playoff spots, I discover it onerous to imagine that the Dolphins will earn their manner into the postseason. Head coach Mike McDaniel has precisely one yr of expertise as an offensive coordinator beneath his belt and did not even name performs in San Francisco. Tua Tagovailoa threw simply 16 landing passes with 10 interceptions final season and will not come wherever near maximizing Tyreek Hill‘s talent set the best way Patrick Mahomes did in Kansas Metropolis. Throw in the truth that Miami faces a five-week stretch beginning in Week 13 that options three straight highway dates towards the 49ers, Chargers and Payments, adopted by a house recreation towards the Packers earlier than a highway date with the Patriots, and you’ve got all of the makings of failed playoff bid.
Aaron Schatz, Soccer Outsiders editor-in-chief: New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs (+160). No Sean Payton isn’t any drawback for the Saints, as now we have New Orleans projected because the No. 1 protection within the league. Can the offense maintain up its finish of the cut price? I feel followers are nonetheless too hung up on Jameis Winston‘s 30-interception season for the Buccaneers in 2019. Winston has persistently been a barely above-average NFL beginning quarterback the remainder of his profession. Final season, he put up a 13.6% DVOA and 64.4 QBR earlier than he tore an ACL. The Saints’ offense also needs to be getting large receiver Michael Thomas again, and so they’ve added Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry this offseason. I do not suppose the Saints are getting previous Tampa Bay, however I like their odds of getting a wild-card spot.
Anita Marks, ESPN betting analyst: San Francisco 49ers to overlook the playoffs (+180). Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo‘s state of affairs with the 49ers is an fascinating one. I imagine Garoppolo desires out of San Francisco, and the 49ers gave up the farm to commerce up for Trey Lance final yr, so I doubt they’ll afford to sit down him for one more yr. I anticipate Garoppolo might be traded and Lance will battle in his first season beginning. The 49ers might be fortunate to go 3-3 within the NFC West and should journey to face the Denver Broncos and host the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Tyler Fulghum, ESPN betting analyst: Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs (+310). I am struggling to know why the market is so down on the Steelers this season. Their win whole is a comically low 7.5. Mike Tomlin has coached 15 seasons within the NFL and by no means had a dropping season. Even when he has his first this yr, an 8-9 document cashes over the win whole. Nevertheless, I feel they’re much more harmful than that. Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett is an improve over 2021 Ben Roethlisberger in my eyes. Their protection continues to be probably the greatest within the league with dynamic expertise like T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Solely the Ravens are higher (when wholesome) within the AFC North, so the pricing on taking a bullish stance on Tomlin and his historical past is simply too enticing to cross up.
The New England Patriots are -160 to not make the playoffs and +140 to observe up final season’s playoff look with one other one. What are your ideas on the Patriots this season?
Doug Kezirian, ESPN betting analyst: Patriots to overlook the playoffs (-160). That is my favourite futures guess. As a lot as I like Invoice Belichick and imagine he’s the best coach the game has ever seen, New England will not be a playoff group. First off, it misplaced offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to the Raiders. Mac Jones is a mediocre quarterback, and all the offense lacks velocity and true playmakers. As Aaron notes under, the protection ought to take a step again too. Moreover, the division has improved. The Payments ought to win each conferences, given the Pats gained final season in a weird recreation that concerned excessive winds. The Jets and Dolphins are not punching baggage. Outdoors the division, New England travels to Pittsburgh, Inexperienced Bay, Cleveland, Minnesota, Arizona and Las Vegas. The Pats may win solely a kind of video games. In addition they host the Ravens, Colts and Bengals. Final yr, all playoff groups misplaced seven or fewer video games. I do not see how the Pats get there.
Schatz: The Patriots look very very like an 8-8 group, besides that there aren’t any extra 8-8 groups. Their protection goes to take a giant step again with out J.C. Jackson at cornerback, plus they led the league in takeaways per drive, which tends to point a decline the next season. I feel the offense outplayed its expertise final season, and I do not count on a lot enchancment from Mac Jones as a result of he already performed very nicely as a rookie. Not each second-year quarterback takes a step ahead, particularly when that quarterback already carried out significantly better than anticipated. The issue right here is the chances given. I’d take the Patriots at -120 to not make the playoffs or at +180 to make it once more. However the present odds just about match my expectations, so I’d steer clear.
Is there a group not anticipated to make the postseason (odds of +200 or longer) that you simply suppose can sneak up and offer you a pleasant payoff?
Seth Walder, ESPN sports activities analytics author: Give me the New York Giants at +250. Should you squint you may see the upside case for the Giants. Coach Brian Daboll ran a really profitable offense in Buffalo, and whereas he will not have the identical expertise at quarterback, he ought to have the ability to get extra out of Daniel Jones and maximize his dashing skills. The offensive line needs to be a bit higher and the receiving corps has potential. And I’ve acquired FPI’s blessing right here, too: It might make truthful odds right here nearly proper at +200.
Eric Moody, ESPN betting analyst: The Lions intrigue me at +475. Detroit performed onerous final season however misplaced six video games by one possession (eight factors or fewer). As well as, the Lions added some nice younger expertise this offseason, so it is doable they could possibly be within the operating for a wild-card spot. Coach Dan Campbell has set the tone for this Lions group and that was evident in lots of video games final season. This group may shock folks in 2022.
Which playoff group from 2021 do you suppose will battle to make it again in 2022? Any good values at ‘no’ for a 2021 playoff group?
Walder: Tennessee Titans to overlook the playoffs (+110). They have been a tender No. 1 seed a yr in the past, have a worse-than-you-think offensive line and are counting on Robert Woods and Treylon Burks at large receiver. Derrick Henry wasn’t notably good final season. His dashing yards have been the product of quantity, however his rush yards over expectation per carry (per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats) dropped from over 1.0 in every of the prior three seasons to only .05 final yr. The weak AFC South all the time provides Tennessee an opportunity, however there is a fairly low flooring for the Titans, too.
Kezirian: Kansas Metropolis Chiefs to overlook the playoffs (+200). Patrick Mahomes is a human cheat code and may win video games by himself. Nevertheless, outdoors of their elite QB, they most likely have the division’s worst roster. Shedding Tyreek Hill is absolutely going to value them. Mahomes may make it work, however I feel +200 is value a shot. The protection continues to be weak, no matter final yr’s narrative that it had improved. Issues simply went their manner as they confronted poor quarterbacks.
Schatz: Arizona Cardinals to overlook the playoffs (+105). The Cardinals have an getting old offensive line and can battle with out WR DeAndre Hopkins for the primary six video games this season. Soccer Outsiders initiatives a major decline from the Arizona protection, which was notably robust final season in takeaways and had success towards short-yardage runs. The Cardinals even have one of many 5 hardest projected schedules within the league. There will even be extra wild-card competitors from groups outdoors the NFC West, together with the Saints and Vikings.