STR Boosts U.S. Hotel Rate Forecast, Cuts Occupancy

Citing still-robust demand however inflationary pressures and a
skittish financial outlook, STR and Tourism Economics on Thursday barely
raised their forecast for U.S. resort charges and income per accessible room however
reduce projected occupancy ranges. 

STR and Tourism Economics now mission a mean 2022 U.S.
every day room fee of $148, up from $145 of their earlier forecast, issued
in June. The businesses additionally mission an occupancy fee of 63 p.c, down
from 63.4 p.c within the prior forecast.

The businesses mission 2022 RevPAR of $93, up from $92 within the
prior projection. The brand new determine represents an 8 p.c improve from 2019.

STR president Amanda Hite in an announcement mentioned the agency reduce
projected occupancy primarily attributable to “a slowdown within the financial system phase,”
citing inflationary pressures on finances leisure customers and a few vacationers
searching for larger service ranges. 

As for fee, “Inflation stays the important thing consideration
in our ADR discussions, however accommodations proceed to show robust pricing energy,”
in keeping with Hite. “There are causes to be involved concerning the financial system,
continued challenges round labor and enterprise transient nonetheless lagging, however the
resort trade is on stable footing. U.S. profitability hit a 32-month excessive in
June, and margins have remained robust though some discount is probably going with
larger staffing ranges, wages, and prices.”

Tourism Economics mum or dad Oxford Economics “anticipates
sluggish financial progress in 2023 however not a recession, as a mix of cooling
combination demand and easing provide constraints will assist sluggish inflation,” Tourism
Economics director of lodging analytics Aran Ryan mentioned in an announcement. “In
this context, with leisure demand supported by stable family funds and an
ongoing restoration of group and enterprise journey, lodging efficiency positive factors are
anticipated to proceed, although at a a lot slower tempo than skilled this 12 months.”

The businesses’ new projections for 2023 name for an occupancy
degree of 64.6 p.c, in contrast with 65.1 p.c within the June forecast. They
mission common every day fee of $152, in contrast with $150 within the prior forecast.
The RevPAR forecast of $98, unchanged since June, represents a 14 p.c
improve from 2019 ranges. 

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